Pacer AI — CRO ARR demo

ARR Target Planning · DemoCo

Company DemoCo · Goal $100M ARR (2025) → $150M ARR (2027) · growth split ⅔ New Customers / ⅓ Existing Customers

Total ARR Growth from New Customers from Existing Customers

Year	2023	2024	2025	2026 (f)	2027 (f)
ARR ($M)	$67M	$83M	$100M	$123M	$150M
Net New ARR ($M)	$13M	$16M	$17M	$23M	$27M
Total ARR Growth	25.0%	23.9%	20.5%	23.0%	22.0%
from New Customers	16.7%	15.9%	13.7%	15.3%	14.6%
from Existing Customers	8.3%	8.0%	6.8%	7.7%	7.3%

from Existing Customers = Net Retention Rate − 1 (i.e. 105% − 1 = 5%)

ARR Waterfall — Account-Product Level · DemoCo

account-product-grain ARR waterfall · Expansion split into Upsell & Cross-sell, Contraction into Downsell & Product Churn · Net New ARR % ties to ARR Target Planning ($100M → $150M)

ARR Waterfall	2023	2024	2025	2026 (f)	2027 (f)
Beginning ARR	$53.6M	$67.0M	$83.0M	$100.0M	$123.0M
Acct Churn ARR	($3.2M)	($3.3M)	($3.1M)	($3.7M)	($4.6M)
Product Churn ARR	($0.3M)	($0.2M)	($0.2M)	($0.2M)	($0.3M)
Downsell ARR	($0.4M)	($0.6M)	($0.9M)	($1.1M)	($1.4M)
Upsell ARR	$7.2M	$8.5M	$8.2M	$9.8M	$12.1M
Product Cross-sell ARR	$1.1M	$0.9M	$1.7M	$2.0M	$2.5M
New Acct. ARR	$9.0M	$10.7M	$11.4M	$16.2M	$18.7M
Ending ARR	$67.0M	$83.0M	$100.0M	$123.0M	$150.0M
Net New ARR	$13.4M	$16.0M	$17.0M	$23.0M	$27.0M

Beg ARR %	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %	-6.0%	-5.0%	-3.7%	-3.7%	-3.7%
Product Churn ARR %	-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Downsell ARR %	-0.8%	-0.9%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Upsell ARR %	13.5%	12.7%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Product Cross-sell ARR %	2.0%	1.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
New ARR %	16.7%	15.9%	13.7%	16.2%	15.2%
Ending ARR %	125.0%	123.9%	120.5%	123.0%	122.0%
Net New ARR %	25.0%	23.9%	20.5%	23.0%	22.0%

ARR Waterfall — By Market · DemoCo

DemoCo · which markets carry the growth · FY2025 · ties to the account waterfall ($83M → $100M, +$17M net new)

New Expansionbars = FY2025 net-new drivers by market

Market A

Net New +$13.3M · New $8.3M · Exp $7.7M · GRR 95% · NRR 108%

Market B

Net New +$1.8M · New $1.9M · Exp $1.1M · GRR 91% · NRR 99%

Market C

Net New +$1.9M · New $1.1M · Exp $1.0M · GRR 97% · NRR 109%

By Market · FY2025	Market A	Market B	Market C	Total
Beginning ARR	$60.2M	$13.9M	$8.9M	$83.0M
Acct Churn	($2.1M)	($0.9M)	($0.1M)	($3.1M)
Product Churn	($0.1M)	($0.0M)	($0.0M)	($0.2M)
Downsell	($0.6M)	($0.3M)	($0.1M)	($0.9M)
Upsell	$6.8M	$0.6M	$0.8M	$8.2M
Product Cross-sell	$1.0M	$0.5M	$0.2M	$1.7M
New	$8.3M	$1.9M	$1.1M	$11.4M
Ending ARR	$73.5M	$15.7M	$10.8M	$100.0M
Net New ARR	$13.3M	$1.8M	$1.9M	$17.0M
GRR	95.4%	91.4%	97.3%	94.9%
NRR	108.3%	99.1%	108.7%	106.8%

Per-market account·product-grain ARR bridge · Contraction = Downsell + Product Churn, Expansion = Upsell + Cross-sell (shown granular). The Total column ties to the account-level ARR waterfall. Full per-market quarterly + forecast detail is in the workbook.

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DemoCo ARR Model

Spreadsheet · XLSX

📁

▦ Excel — DemoCo_ARR_model.xlsx

OverviewReconciliationTop down ARR modelTop Down QtrlyQtrly ModelBy MarketCustomer Cube

Top-Down ARR Model · actual + 3-year forecast with improvement assumptions

Year	(Multiple Items) ▾
Year Month	All ▾

	Column Labels ▾
Values	12/31/2023	12/31/2024	12/31/2025	12/31/2026(F)	12/31/2027(F)	12/31/2028(F)
Beginning ARR	53,600,004	66,999,996	83,000,004	99,999,996	121,481,912	147,578,556
Acct. Churn ARR	(3,197,904)	(3,338,256)	(3,076,320)	(2,706,409)	(3,287,798)	(3,994,080)
Product Churn ARR	(272,196)	(187,788)	(169,584)	(204,318)	(248,209)	(301,530)
Downsell ARR	(405,900)	(589,284)	(946,008)	(1,139,769)	(1,384,613)	(1,682,054)
Upsell ARR	7,230,360	8,537,616	8,164,800	9,837,108	11,950,307	14,517,462
Product Cross-sell ARR	1,094,520	924,672	1,656,132	1,995,340	2,423,977	2,944,693
New Acct. ARR	8,951,112	10,653,048	11,370,972	13,699,965	16,642,980	20,218,211
Ending ARR	66,999,996	83,000,004	99,999,996	121,481,912	147,578,556	179,281,259
Net New ARR	13,399,992	16,000,008	16,999,992	21,481,916	26,096,644	31,702,703

Beg ARR %	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %	-6.0%	-5.0%	-3.7%	-2.7%	-2.7%	-2.7%	Improvements assumed
Product Churn ARR %	-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Downsell ARR %	-0.8%	-0.9%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Upsell ARR %	13.5%	12.7%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Product Cross-sell ARR %	2.0%	1.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
New ARR %	16.7%	15.9%	13.7%	13.7%	13.7%	13.7%
Ending ARR %	125.0%	123.9%	120.5%	121.5%	121.5%	121.5%
Net New ARR %	25.0%	23.9%	20.5%	21.5%	21.5%	21.5%

Improvement Assumptions
				100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %				1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Product Churn ARR %				0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Downsell ARR %				0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Upsell ARR %				0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Product Cross-sell ARR %				0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New ARR %				0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
				101.0%	100.0%	100.0%
				1.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Top-Down Quarterly · 2025 actual + 2026 run-rate forecast with improvement assumptions

Year	2025
Year Month	(Multiple Items) ▾

	Column Labels ▾
Values	2025-Q1	2025-Q2	2025-Q3	2025-Q4	2026-Q1(F)	2026-Q2(F)	2026-Q3(F)	2026-Q4(F)
Beginning ARR	83,000,004	89,300,592	94,031,952	96,723,696	99,999,996	107,841,065	113,824,347	117,367,226
Acct. Churn ARR	(406,212)	(647,376)	(712,896)	(1,309,836)	(239,412)	(512,181)	(578,390)	(1,354,657)
Product Churn ARR	(86,976)	(12,120)	(50,352)	(20,136)	(104,790)	(14,636)	(60,950)	(24,434)
Downsell ARR	(299,280)	(214,356)	(210,852)	(221,520)	(360,578)	(258,860)	(255,233)	(268,799)
Upsell ARR	3,593,016	2,666,952	904,740	1,000,092	4,328,935	3,220,661	1,095,175	1,213,539
Product Cross-sell ARR	242,952	508,788	268,248	636,144	292,713	614,422	324,710	771,915
New Acct. ARR	3,257,088	2,429,472	2,492,856	3,191,556	3,924,202	2,933,876	3,017,567	3,872,723
Ending ARR	89,300,592	94,031,952	96,723,696	99,999,996	107,841,065	113,824,347	117,367,226	121,577,514
Net New ARR	6,300,588	4,731,360	2,691,744	3,276,300	7,841,069	5,983,281	3,542,879	4,210,288

Beg ARR %	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %	-0.5%	-0.7%	-0.8%	-1.4%	-0.2%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-1.2%	Improvements assumed
Product Churn ARR %	-0.1%	-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.0%
Downsell ARR %	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Upsell ARR %	4.3%	3.0%	1.0%	1.0%	4.3%	3.0%	1.0%	1.0%
Product Cross-sell ARR %	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%	0.7%
New ARR %	3.9%	2.7%	2.7%	3.3%	3.9%	2.7%	2.7%	3.3%
Ending ARR %	107.6%	105.3%	102.9%	103.4%	107.8%	105.5%	103.1%	103.6%
Net New ARR %	7.6%	5.3%	2.9%	3.4%	7.8%	5.5%	3.1%	3.6%

GRR	99.0%	99.0%	99.0%	98.4%	99.3%	99.3%	99.2%	98.6%
NRR	103.7%	102.6%	100.2%	100.1%	103.9%	102.8%	100.5%	100.3%

Improvement Assumptions
					100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %					0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0.20%
Product Churn ARR %					0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Downsell ARR %					0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Upsell ARR %					0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Product Cross-sell ARR %					0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
New ARR %					0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
					100.3%	100.3%	100.3%	100.2%
Net New ARR %					0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%

By Market — Quarterly ARR waterfall · 2025 actual + 2026 run-rate forecast

Row Labels	2025-Q1	2025-Q2	2025-Q3	2025-Q4	2026-Q1(F)	2026-Q2(F)	2026-Q3(F)	2026-Q4(F)
	Column Labels
Market A
Beginning ARR	60,175,044	65,691,480	69,156,720	71,286,852	73,458,744	75,696,807	78,003,057	80,379,571
Acct Churn ARR	(355,716)	(452,844)	(460,860)	(817,440)	(842,345)	(868,009)	(894,454)	(921,705)
Product Churn ARR	(37,332)	(4,788)	(50,352)	(20,136)	(20,749)	(21,382)	(22,033)	(22,704)
Downsell ARR	(161,616)	(181,236)	(71,652)	(145,020)	(149,438)	(153,991)	(158,683)	(163,517)
Upsell ARR	3,393,192	1,908,252	683,172	780,732	804,519	829,030	854,288	880,315
Product Cross-sell ARR	221,844	304,128	204,456	248,148	255,708	263,499	271,527	279,800
New Acct. ARR	2,456,064	1,891,728	1,825,368	2,125,608	2,190,369	2,257,103	2,325,870	2,396,732
Ending ARR	65,691,480	69,156,720	71,286,852	73,458,744	75,696,807	78,003,057	80,379,571	82,828,490
Net New ARR	5,516,436	3,465,240	2,130,132	2,171,892	2,238,063	2,306,250	2,376,514	2,448,919

Beg ARR %	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %	-0.6%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Product Churn ARR %	-0.1%	-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.0%	-0.0%	-0.0%	-0.0%	-0.0%
Downsell ARR %	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Upsell ARR %	5.6%	2.9%	1.0%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Product Cross-sell ARR %	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
New ARR %	4.1%	2.9%	2.6%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
Ending ARR %	109.2%	105.3%	103.1%	103.0%	103.0%	103.0%	103.0%	103.0%
Net New ARR %	9.2%	5.3%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
Market B
Beginning ARR	13,877,532	14,617,752	15,125,952	15,374,664	15,695,328	16,022,680	16,356,859	16,698,009
Acct Churn ARR	(16,944)	(161,916)	(182,868)	(492,396)	(502,666)	(513,150)	(523,852)	(534,778)
Product Churn ARR	-	(7,332)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Downsell ARR	(125,592)	(30,876)	(129,132)	(46,332)	(47,298)	(48,285)	(49,292)	(50,320)
Upsell ARR	159,900	122,616	158,940	169,296	172,827	176,432	180,111	183,868
Product Cross-sell ARR	19,116	156,648	49,704	225,816	230,526	235,334	240,242	245,253
New Acct. ARR	703,740	429,060	352,068	464,280	473,963	483,849	493,940	504,242
Ending ARR	14,617,752	15,125,952	15,374,664	15,695,328	16,022,680	16,356,859	16,698,009	17,046,273
Net New ARR	740,220	508,200	248,712	320,664	327,352	334,179	341,149	348,265

Beg ARR %	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %	-0.1%	-1.1%	-1.2%	-3.2%	-3.2%	-3.2%	-3.2%	-3.2%
Product Churn ARR %	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Downsell ARR %	-0.9%	-0.2%	-0.9%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Upsell ARR %	1.2%	0.8%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Product Cross-sell ARR %	0.1%	1.1%	0.3%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
New ARR %	5.1%	2.9%	2.3%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
Ending ARR %	105.3%	103.5%	101.6%	102.1%	102.1%	102.1%	102.1%	102.1%
Net New ARR %	5.3%	3.5%	1.6%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
Market C
Beginning ARR	8,947,428	8,991,360	9,749,280	10,062,180	10,845,924	11,690,714	12,601,305	13,582,821
Acct Churn ARR	(33,552)	(32,616)	(69,168)	-	-	-	-	-
Product Churn ARR	(49,644)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Downsell ARR	(12,072)	(2,244)	(10,068)	(30,168)	(32,518)	(35,051)	(37,781)	(40,723)
Upsell ARR	39,924	636,084	62,628	50,064	53,963	58,167	62,697	67,581
Product Cross-sell ARR	1,992	48,012	14,088	162,180	174,812	188,428	203,105	218,925
New Acct. ARR	97,284	108,684	315,420	601,668	648,532	699,046	753,495	812,185
Ending ARR	8,991,360	9,749,280	10,062,180	10,845,924	11,690,714	12,601,305	13,582,821	14,640,788
Net New ARR	43,932	757,920	312,900	783,744	844,790	910,591	981,517	1,057,967

Beg ARR %	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Churn ARR %	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Product Churn ARR %	-0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Downsell ARR %	-0.1%	-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Upsell ARR %	0.4%	7.1%	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Product Cross-sell ARR %	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%
New ARR %	1.1%	1.2%	3.2%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%
Ending ARR %	100.5%	108.4%	103.2%	107.8%	107.8%	107.8%	107.8%	107.8%
Net New ARR %	0.5%	8.4%	3.2%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%